Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Zach Weinberg & Kevin Ryan Headline A New VC Podcast

This week Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's debuted a new, limited edition podcast called This Won’t Last, part of the Turpentine network. Eavesdrop on their monthly backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in tech, venture, business, and invariably politics. They rarely agree, and their PR teams are already pushing back, but these are the real conversations.

In episode 1 of This Won’t Last, recorded just last Friday, they discuss Paul Graham’s essay "Founder Mode", AI valuations, the state of the venture market, and free speech concerns with Telegram and TikTok.

Listen below on Spotify, Apple, and Subscribe on YouTube

Here are some a few standout topics in episode 1:

→ Should VCs be investing so heavily in AI?

Logan: skeptical. Some funds might be using AI investments to justify larger AUM and fees, hoping to land the next Amazon of AI to cover risk. Starting a separate "AI fund" could allow VCs to sidestep overarching scrutiny.

Keith: Disagrees and thinks an AI-specific fund is a bad idea due to adverse selection. AI is real, but it takes true expertise to make the right investments.

Kevin: Sees it as a sector bet. Firms like Sequoia are betting huge on AI. If AI becomes transformative, they’ll win by backing the hottest companies.

Zach: AI investment is good for humanity, but he’s skeptical about investor returns, given the massive capital expenditure required, which could limit financial upside.

→ The French government accusing Telegram of facilitating illegal activities:

Logan: Telegram isn't fully encrypted beyond its secret chats, so Telegram likely had access to illegal activity. There’s probably a technological limit they should have solved if they wanted to operate laissez faire.

Kevin: Telegram is seen as secure messaging, but ironically, it’s not fully encrypted like Signal or WhatsApp. The Russian government could even have access to Telegram’s data, given their flip-flopping on the platform. “Either they got religion on free speech, or they have access.”

Keith: Europe may be suppressing free speech and Telegram may have real issues.

→ A possible unrealized capital gains tax?

Logan, Keith, Kevin, and Zach all agree it’s a terrible idea and won’t happen, but tossed around some interesting solutions for fixing the US deficit. Worth a listen.

→ Will AI really revolutionize biotech?

Zach: Skeptical of AI hype in biotech, particularly the idea of AI independently designing drugs. AI can help reduce costs and improve processes but won't revolutionize drug discovery anytime soon due to limited training data.

Logan: Biotech’s long, costly feedback loops make validation slower compared to digital industries. AI’s role in biotech will be more about improving efficiency than creating groundbreaking solutions.

Keith: In any hype cycle, people overlook revenue quality. Investors should focus on disruptive technologies rather than sustaining technologies that only help incumbents.

Kevin: AI can be a game-changer, especially in reducing costs for white-collar industries. However, there’s a risk of commoditization.

For the full episode and to subscribe to This Won’t Last

• Listen on Spotify

• Listen on Apple

• Watch on Youtube